Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market13 Sep 2026

Does the FCDO summon Russia's envoy over the strike by 27 Sep?

BinaryResolves 27 Sep 2026
Hunch30%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

The Foreign Office news feed on gov.uk shows no summons of Russia's ambassador or chargé between 13 and 27 September 2026; the last summons was on 3 September over the Leipzig airport attack, which does not count.

Resolved 27 Sep 2026
How this resolves

(adjacent). The market resolves on gov.uk Foreign Office news: YES if a statement dated 13 to 27 September 2026 records that the Russian ambassador or chargé d'affaires in London was summoned and names the 13 September strike near the Polish border; a summons over another incident does not count. If gov.uk has not published, BBC and Sky News settle it, and silence by 23:59 BST on 27 September resolves NO.

The pattern behind it

7 of 8
Seven of the last eight strikes of this kind led to new UK sanctions or a new military aid package within 14 days. Only Sumy in April 2025 did not. With the Yavoriv strike of March 2022 it is eight of nine.

We looked at Russian strikes since 2022 that landed on or next to a Western delegation, a building of a Western country, or NATO territory. We found nine. For each we checked gov.uk to see whether the UK announced new sanctions on Russia or new military aid for Ukraine within 14 days. The eight most recent are shown here, newest first.