Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market03 Aug 2026

Does ONS annual food CPI for July 2026 print at 2.0% or higher on 19 Aug?

BinaryResolves 19 Aug 2026
History1 of 4
Hunch28%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

ONS published the July 2026 food and non-alcoholic beverages annual CPI rate at 1.3% on 19 August, below the 2.0% threshold and down from 1.7% in June (ONS series D7G8; Consumer price inflation, UK: July 2026).

Resolved 19 Aug 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on the ONS Consumer Price Inflation bulletin for July 2026, published at 7am on 19 August 2026, using the CPI annual rate for food and non-alcoholic beverages (series D7G8) exactly as first published, to one decimal place. YES if that rate is 2.0 per cent or higher; the June 2026 reference rate is 1.7 per cent. Later ONS revisions do not change the outcome. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and the Financial Times settle it.

The pattern behind it

3 of 4
In 3 of 4 UK drought summers since 1976, the big retail food-price move came with a lag of five months or more. The exception is the deepest one. 1995 was the driest England and Wales summer on record, and food CPI ran 2.9% in July, 4.4% in August and 5.7% in September. Wholesale panic and till-price reality usually run on different clocks, but the driest summer in the set did not wait.

Britain has had four big drought summers since 1976. We checked how fast each one pushed up food prices in the shops. Usually it took months. The exception was 1995, the driest summer on record, when food inflation rose sharply by September.