Where does July 2026 food and non-alcoholic beverages annual CPI land?
Multiple choiceResolves 19 Aug 2026
Hunch
Below 1.5%17%
1.5%–1.9%51%
2.0%–2.4%25%
2.5% or higher7%
Your forecast
Below 1.5%
1.5%–1.9%
2.0%–2.4%
2.5% or higher
Resolved
Resolved: Below 1.5%
The July 2026 food and non-alcoholic beverages annual CPI rate came in at 1.3%, landing in the "Below 1.5%" band (ONS series D7G8; Consumer price inflation, UK: July 2026, Table 3).
Resolved 19 Aug 2026
How this resolves
Resolves on the same first-published D7G8 annual rate in the ONS bulletin for July 2026, placing it in one of the four bands. Later revisions do not reopen the market. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and the Financial Times settle it.
The pattern behind it
3 of 4
In 3 of 4 UK drought summers since 1976, the big retail food-price move came with a lag of five months or more. The exception is the deepest one. 1995 was the driest England and Wales summer on record, and food CPI ran 2.9% in July, 4.4% in August and 5.7% in September. Wholesale panic and till-price reality usually run on different clocks, but the driest summer in the set did not wait.
Britain has had four big drought summers since 1976. We checked how fast each one pushed up food prices in the shops. Usually it took months. The exception was 1995, the driest summer on record, when food inflation rose sharply by September.
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