Does United Russia win at least 300 of the 450 Duma seats?
BinaryResolves 21 Sep 2026
History38%
Hunch80%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
Central Election Commission results announced 21 September 2026 give United Russia a record 355 of 450 Duma seats (Reuters) and more than three quarters of the chamber (Al Jazeera).
Resolved 21 Sep 2026
How this resolves
Resolves YES if the Central Election Commission's official seat allocation for the 9th State Duma, published on cikrf.ru, gives United Russia 300 or more seats. If cikrf.ru is unreachable, the figure as reported by at least two of Al Jazeera, Reuters and BBC News suffices.
The pattern behind it
3 of 8
In three of the eight State Duma elections since 1993 the largest party won at least 300 of 450 seats, and all three were United Russia: 315 in 2007, 343 in 2016 and 324 in 2021. United Russia fell short in 2003, with 223 seats, and in 2011, with 238. Before it existed no party came close: the Communists led with 157 seats in 1995 and 113 in 1999, and in 1993 the two largest blocs won 64 each.
We looked at all eight Duma elections since 1993. For each one we checked how many seats the largest party won, and whether it reached 300, the two-thirds needed to change the constitution.
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