Does United Russia take more than 50% of the party-list vote in the 18-20 Sep 2026 Duma election?
BinaryResolves 25 Sep 2026
Hunch38%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
The Central Election Commission reported United Russia at 57.83% of the party-list vote, above 50%, per Al Jazeera on 21 September 2026.
Resolved 25 Sep 2026
How this resolves
The list-vote market resolves on United Russia's share of the nationwide party-list vote in the Central Election Commission's final protocol.
The pattern behind it
3 of 8
In three of the eight State Duma elections since 1993 the largest party won at least 300 of 450 seats, and all three were United Russia: 315 in 2007, 343 in 2016 and 324 in 2021. United Russia fell short in 2003, with 223 seats, and in 2011, with 238. Before it existed no party came close: the Communists led with 157 seats in 1995 and 113 in 1999, and in 1993 the two largest blocs won 64 each.
We looked at all eight Duma elections since 1993. For each one we checked how many seats the largest party won, and whether it reached 300, the two-thirds needed to change the constitution.
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