Is turnout in the 18-20 Sep 2026 Duma election above 51.7%?
BinaryResolves 25 Sep 2026
Hunch62%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
Election officials reported nationwide turnout of 59.32%, above 51.7%, per Meduza and The Moscow Times on 21 September 2026.
Resolved 25 Sep 2026
How this resolves
Resolves YES if the nationwide turnout figure announced by the Central Election Commission is above 51.7%.
The pattern behind it
3 of 8
In three of the eight State Duma elections since 1993 the largest party won at least 300 of 450 seats, and all three were United Russia: 315 in 2007, 343 in 2016 and 324 in 2021. United Russia fell short in 2003, with 223 seats, and in 2011, with 238. Before it existed no party came close: the Communists led with 157 seats in 1995 and 113 in 1999, and in 1993 the two largest blocs won 64 each.
We looked at all eight Duma elections since 1993. For each one we checked how many seats the largest party won, and whether it reached 300, the two-thirds needed to change the constitution.
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