Does United Russia win 325 or more of the 450 State Duma seats in the September election?
BinaryResolves 25 Sep 2026
History75%
Hunch50%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
The Central Election Commission's chief said United Russia won 355 of the 450 seats, above 325, per Euronews and Al Jazeera on 21 September 2026.
Resolved 25 Sep 2026
How this resolves
Resolves YES if the Central Election Commission's official seat allocation for the 9th State Duma, published on cikrf.ru at its results session (expected within about a week of 20 Sep), gives United Russia 325 or more of the 450 seats, party-list and single-mandate combined. Exactly 324 resolves NO. If cikrf.ru is unreachable or has not published by 25 Sep, the seat total reported by at least two of Al Jazeera, Reuters and BBC News suffices; if none has reported, resolution waits for the first such report.
The pattern behind it
6 of 8
In six of the last eight cases the ruling party improved on its previous result after an opposition party was barred: Russia in 2007 (37.6% to 64.1%), Cambodia in 2018 (68 seats to 125), Venezuela in 2018 (50.8% to 68%), Nicaragua in 2021 (72.1% to about 75%), Belarus in 2025 (80% to 86.8%) and Tanzania in 2025 (85% to 97.66%). The two exceptions are Cambodia in 2023, where the CPP ceded five of its 125 seats to a tame royalist party, and Russia in 2011, where United Russia lost 77 of 315 seats after PARNAS was refused registration. Myanmar's 2023 dissolution of the NLD is left out because the vote came 33 months later; with it the count is seven of nine. The 2011 Russian case is the only one where the removal was a refusal to register rather than the annulment of a registered list.
We looked for times when a court or an election commission removed a registered opposition party from a national ballot. We started with Russia, then looked at countries run in a similar way: Belarus, Cambodia, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Tanzania, from 2007 to 2026. We found nine cases. Eight are shown here.
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