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Market10 Sep 2026

Do Russian authorities open a criminal case against Yabloko chair Nikolai Rybakov by 9 Oct 2026?

BinaryResolves 9 Oct 2026
Hunch25%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No criminal case against Nikolai Rybakov was opened by 9 October 2026: Yabloko's own news page reports only that a St Petersburg court fined him 1,000 rubles on 9 October, an administrative penalty the rule excludes, and no Al Jazeera, Reuters or BBC report of a criminal case was found.

Resolved 9 Oct 2026
How this resolves

Resolves YES if by 23:59 Moscow time on 9 Oct 2026 the Investigative Committee, the Prosecutor General's Office or a Russian court publicly records a criminal case under the Criminal Code naming Nikolai Rybakov as a suspect or defendant, or Yabloko announces on yabloko.ru that such a case has been opened. Administrative Code fines or detention (for example under Article 20.3) do not count. If the primary sources are silent, a report by at least two of Al Jazeera, Reuters and BBC News that a criminal case has been opened resolves YES; otherwise NO.

The pattern behind it

6 of 8
In six of the last eight cases the ruling party improved on its previous result after an opposition party was barred: Russia in 2007 (37.6% to 64.1%), Cambodia in 2018 (68 seats to 125), Venezuela in 2018 (50.8% to 68%), Nicaragua in 2021 (72.1% to about 75%), Belarus in 2025 (80% to 86.8%) and Tanzania in 2025 (85% to 97.66%). The two exceptions are Cambodia in 2023, where the CPP ceded five of its 125 seats to a tame royalist party, and Russia in 2011, where United Russia lost 77 of 315 seats after PARNAS was refused registration. Myanmar's 2023 dissolution of the NLD is left out because the vote came 33 months later; with it the count is seven of nine. The 2011 Russian case is the only one where the removal was a refusal to register rather than the annulment of a registered list.

We looked for times when a court or an election commission removed a registered opposition party from a national ballot. We started with Russia, then looked at countries run in a similar way: Belarus, Cambodia, Venezuela, Nicaragua and Tanzania, from 2007 to 2026. We found nine cases. Eight are shown here.