Does the ECB raise the deposit facility rate on 10 September 2026?

BinaryResolves 10 Sep 2026

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Your forecast

Resolved

Resolved: YES

The Governing Council raised all three key rates by 25 basis points on 10 September 2026, taking the deposit facility to 2.50 per cent with effect from 16 September, its second increase of the year.

Resolved 10 Sep 2026

How this resolves

The market resolves on the monetary policy decision published on ecb.europa.eu at 14:15 CET on 10 September 2026; resolves YES if it raises the deposit facility rate by any amount. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and BBC News settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases

In two of the four ECB tightening cycles since 1999 the third rise came within eight weeks of the second: March 2000, six weeks after February, and November 2022, seven weeks after September. In 2006 the gap was fourteen weeks, and in 2011 there was no third rise at all; the next move was a cut four months later. Four cycles are the full record and too few for a base rate.

A quick third rise came in two of four past periods. We looked at every period of ECB rate rises since 1999 and checked whether a third rise came within eight weeks of the second. The dates are the days each change took effect, from the ECB's own record.

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Does the ECB raise the deposit facility rate on 10 September 2026?

The pattern behind it

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