Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market02 Sep 2026

Does the ECB raise the deposit facility rate at its meeting on 29 October 2026?

BinaryResolves 29 Oct 2026
Hunch40%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

On 29 October 2026 the ECB's monetary policy decision on ecb.europa.eu kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.50%, and AFP reported the same day that the bank kept rates on hold, so there was no rise.

Resolved 29 Oct 2026
How this resolves

The market resolves on the monetary policy decision published on ecb.europa.eu at 14:15 CET on 29 October 2026; resolves YES if it raises the deposit facility rate by any amount. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and BBC News reports of the decision settle it.

The pattern behind it

Too few cases
In two of the four ECB tightening cycles since 1999 the third rise came within eight weeks of the second: March 2000, six weeks after February, and November 2022, seven weeks after September. In 2006 the gap was fourteen weeks, and in 2011 there was no third rise at all; the next move was a cut four months later. Four cycles are the full record and too few for a base rate.

A quick third rise came in two of four past periods. We looked at every period of ECB rate rises since 1999 and checked whether a third rise came within eight weeks of the second. The dates are the days each change took effect, from the ECB's own record.