On 29 October 2026 the ECB's monetary policy decision on ecb.europa.eu kept the deposit facility rate unchanged at 2.50%, and AFP reported the same day that the bank kept rates on hold, so there was no rise.
The market resolves on the monetary policy decision published on ecb.europa.eu at 14:15 CET on 29 October 2026; resolves YES if it raises the deposit facility rate by any amount. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and BBC News reports of the decision settle it.
A quick third rise came in two of four past periods. We looked at every period of ECB rate rises since 1999 and checked whether a third rise came within eight weeks of the second. The dates are the days each change took effect, from the ECB's own record.