The Governing Council held all three key rates, keeping the deposit rate at 2.25% while it gauges the energy-price impact of the Iran conflict.
The deposit facility rate is the reference rate. Any announced increase, of any size, resolves the July hike market YES. Resolution follows the ECB monetary policy decision press release published at ecb.europa.eu at 13:45 CET on 23 July 2026. If the meeting is rescheduled, both markets resolve on the ECB's first monetary policy decision published after 23 July.
Only once did the ECB raise again at the very next meeting. We looked at the four times since 1999 that the ECB started raising rates. Each time we asked the same thing: did the second rise come at the next meeting, or did the ECB wait to see more data? It moved straight away only in 2022.