Where is the ECB deposit rate after the 23 July decision?
Multiple choiceResolves 23 Jul 2026
Hunch
Held at 2.25%63%
Raised to 2.50%30%
Raised above 2.50%4%
Cut below 2.25%3%
Your forecast
Held at 2.25%
Raised to 2.50%
Raised above 2.50%
Cut below 2.25%
Resolved
Resolved: Held at 2.25%
The deposit facility stayed at 2.25%, in line with expectations, with markets now eyeing September for a possible second hike.
Resolved 23 Jul 2026
How this resolves
The deposit-rate market resolves on the level of the deposit facility rate stated in that same decision.
The pattern behind it
1 of 4
In 1 of 4 ECB hiking cycles the second hike came at the very next meeting. The other three times the Council paused for at least two meetings. Only the 2022 energy-shock cycle moved back to back, and July 2026 is also an energy-shock cycle, so the split cuts both ways.
Only once did the ECB raise again at the very next meeting. We looked at the four times since 1999 that the ECB started raising rates. Each time we asked the same thing: did the second rise come at the next meeting, or did the ECB wait to see more data? It moved straight away only in 2022.
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