Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market29 Sep 2026

Does the staff union step up action at Edinburgh by 28 Dec?

BinaryResolves 28 Dec 2026
History29%
Hunch24%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 28 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

History. 2 of 7. Aberdeen moved from four single days to a ten-day block, and Birmingham's bin workers went on an all-out strike. Dundee, Heriot-Watt and Robert Gordon changed their action only later or not at all; the University of the West of Scotland settled; Network Rail staff kept to single days.

Hunch. Edinburgh's staff have already used a marking boycott, from 1 May 2026, and the current strike is already the longest in their dispute, so fewer bigger steps are left (BBC News, 27 Apr and 28 Sep 2026).

How this resolves

The union action market resolves on announcements by UCU at the University of Edinburgh, confirmed by BBC News or The Herald: YES if between 28 September and 28 December 2026 the union announces an open-ended strike, a strike block longer than the one ending 30 October, a boycott of marking or assessment, a new ballot for action, or that it has left talks. New strike days in shorter blocks resolve NO.

The pattern behind it

2 of 7
In 2 of 7 similar disputes the employer ruled out some or all forced job cuts within three months of the first strike: the University of the West of Scotland and Heriot-Watt.

We looked for cases where an employer short of money cut jobs, a union answered with strikes that cost its own members their pay, and people outside the dispute, such as students or residents, paid the price. We kept the cases where the government or another public funder could pay. We found seven since 2022. Five are Scottish universities; the others are Birmingham's bin strike and Network Rail. We counted from the first day of strikes.