Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market26 Aug 2026

Do figures published by 26 Nov show more than 13,000 social rent homes completed in England in 2025-26?

BinaryResolves 26 Nov 2026
History0%
Hunch52%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 26 Nov 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on the MHCLG statistical release Affordable housing supply in England: 2025 to 2026 on gov.uk, or on Live Table 1000 if the live tables are updated first. YES if the social rent completions figure for England in 2025-26 is greater than 13,000. The figure as first published governs; later revisions do not reopen the market. If no 2025-26 figure is published by 26 November 2026, the market voids. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and the Financial Times reporting the release settle it.

The pattern behind it

0 of 8
None of the last eight years passed 13,000 social rent completions; across the full thirteen-year record since 2012-13 only the first year did, at 17,580, less than half the 37,677 of 2011-12. The floor was 5,827 in 2016-17; the latest, 12,267 in 2024-25, is the highest since 2012-13 and the fourth consecutive rise, 733 short of the line.

We looked at the government's yearly count of homes for social rent finished in England. The count has been made the same way since 1991-92. Our record starts in 2012-13, the first full year after 'affordable rent' replaced social rent as the main type of home the state paid for, and runs to 2024-25. For each year we asked whether more than 13,000 social rent homes were finished. Only the first year, 2012-13, passed that mark. The eight most recent years are shown.