Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market26 Aug 2026

Does the housing ministry name further Social and Affordable Homes Programme allocations by 25 Sep?

BinaryResolves 25 Sep 2026
Hunch20%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No MHCLG news story, policy paper or allocation letter on gov.uk between 26 August and 25 September 2026 named further Social and Affordable Homes Programme allocations; the only related release, on 21 September, gave £21.8m of Council Housebuilding Support Fund capacity money to help councils bid, not programme allocations.

Resolved 25 Sep 2026
How this resolves

Resolves on gov.uk. YES if a news story, policy paper or allocation letter published by MHCLG on or before 25 September 2026 names further Social and Affordable Homes Programme allocations beyond those in the 25 August 2026 announcement. A restatement of the first wave does not count, and an allocation announced only by a mayoral authority or the GLA does not count. If that source has not published in time, BBC News and the Guardian settle it.

The pattern behind it

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None of the last eight years passed 13,000 social rent completions; across the full thirteen-year record since 2012-13 only the first year did, at 17,580, less than half the 37,677 of 2011-12. The floor was 5,827 in 2016-17; the latest, 12,267 in 2024-25, is the highest since 2012-13 and the fourth consecutive rise, 733 short of the line.

We looked at the government's yearly count of homes for social rent finished in England. The count has been made the same way since 1991-92. Our record starts in 2012-13, the first full year after 'affordable rent' replaced social rent as the main type of home the state paid for, and runs to 2024-25. For each year we asked whether more than 13,000 social rent homes were finished. Only the first year, 2012-13, passed that mark. The eight most recent years are shown.