Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market25 Jun 2026

Where does the 21st package stand on 10 August?

Multiple choiceResolves 10 Aug 2026
Hunch
Adopted in full24%
Adopted with carve-outs35%
Still under negotiation41%
Your forecast
  • Adopted in full
  • Adopted with carve-outs
  • Still under negotiation
Resolved
Resolved: Adopted with carve-outs

The adopted text added Hungary-specific accommodations absent from the June proposal, including Paks II derogations and an extension of Hungary's saturated hydrocarbons exemption to 31 December 2026, per the Official Journal texts.

Resolved 23 Jul 2026
How this resolves

"Adopted with carve-outs" means the published text contains a derogation, exemption or transition period specifically accommodating Hungary or Slovakia that was not in the Commission's June proposal.

The pattern behind it

20 of 20
Twenty of twenty packages were eventually adopted, a perfect record on the destination. The split is on the journey: four of the last five were held up by a veto, and holdouts have added five to ten weeks. Adoption within a month of proposal has become the exception, not the rule.

The EU has passed twenty rounds of sanctions on Russia in four years, and every one was adopted in the end. But the wait has grown longer. Early rounds passed in days. Recent ones were delayed for weeks or months by one or two governments that wanted something in return. Here are the last five.