History. 4 of 5. EU and China 2005 (65 days), EEC and Japan 1983 (56 to 61 days), US and Japan 1981 (62 to 89 days) and 1971 (60 days) got a limit in time. US and Japan steel 1968 took about six months.
Hunch. China's commerce ministry publicly rejected the request on 18 September, after the threat, which no exporter's government did in the five past cases.
The limit market resolves YES if, from 27 September to 14 December 2026, the European Commission or China's commerce ministry announces that China, its government or its car exporters will limit the number or market share of hybrid cars (full or plug-in) sent to the EU. A deal on minimum prices only resolves NO. Reuters and the Financial Times reports of such an announcement are the backup.
We looked for cases where a country or trade bloc asked another country to send less of a fast-growing product, named the step it would take itself if not, and had not yet opened an investigation into that product. We found five, from 1968 to 2005. In four, the exporter announced a limit within 89 days of the threat. Four of the five exporters were Japan, which relied on the United States for its security.