Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market02 Jul 2026

Will Washington announce a new tariff measure on EU goods by 10 Aug?

BinaryResolves 10 Aug 2026
History4 of 5
Hunch24%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

USTR's final Section 301 forced-labour action announced on 23 July imposed duties of 10-12.5% net of MFN on certain EU goods, published in the Federal Register on 28 July.

Resolved 23 Jul 2026
How this resolves

A new US tariff measure counts only if published in the Federal Register or announced by formal White House proclamation naming EU goods; social media posts alone do not resolve YES.

The pattern behind it

4 of 5
Four of five Trump-era tariff deadlines ended in deferral or a deal rather than escalation. The 2018 steel tariffs are the exception, and they show the threat is not always a bluff.

We found five tariff deadlines Donald Trump set since 2018. Each time he named a date, spoke to the other leader, and then the higher tariff was either put off or replaced by a deal. Only once did the threatened tariff actually arrive on the date.