Hunch. Eurostat calls its 5.5% figure for Ireland experimental and open to revision, and in September the European Central Bank said Irish data had already cut the January to March figure.
The July to September market resolves on Eurostat's first estimate for the fourth quarter of 2026, due on 29 January 2027: YES if that release shows euro area growth in July to September of 0.5% or more against the quarter before, and NO if 0.4% or less. Earlier updates do not settle it, and Reuters and the Financial Times settle it if the Eurostat page is down.
We looked for cases where Eurostat published figures for the first three quarters of a year while one euro area country's quarterly growth swung by 5% or more, up and down. We found four such years, from 2007 to 2025, and add 2002, when Eurostat's table had no quarterly figures for Ireland. In four of the five, the year's first figure was no lower than three quarters showed.