F1 and the FIA made no statement by 16 October 2026 that the Qatar Grand Prix is cancelled or moved: the F1 Qatar race page, read on 17 October, still lists the race at Lusail on 27 to 29 November, and a Reuters report of 16 October (carried by The Straits Times) says the race remains on the calendar as scheduled with no announcement made.
History. 2 of 7. The endurance series in Qatar (88 days ahead) and the world rally in Saudi Arabia (59 days ahead). The other five were decided 9 to 29 days before the race.
Hunch. F1 has already pushed its own decision date back once, from mid-September to mid-October (Reuters, 11 Sep 2026; Sky Sports, 26 Sep 2026).
The decision-date market resolves YES if F1 or the FIA announces by the end of 16 October 2026, UK time, that the Qatar Grand Prix is cancelled or moved to another date or track. No announcement, or a statement that the race goes ahead, resolves NO. Sky Sports and BBC Sport reports of the statement are the backup.
We looked for cases where a round of an international racing series stayed on the calendar after war or unrest began in the host country or region, and the organiser decided before race weekend. We found seven since 2011, and one went ahead on its date and at its track. Five of the seven come from this year's war in the Middle East, and the FIA, which also has a say on F1's calendar, took part in five of the seven decisions.