The FOMC statement of 28 October 2026 on federalreserve.gov kept the federal funds target range at 3-3/4 to 4 percent by a 10 to 2 vote, which The Guardian also reported.
Hunch. Investors left the September meeting pricing the next rise for December rather than October, and Kevin Warsh has published no rate path that would prepare a back-to-back move days before the congressional elections.
This market resolves on the policy statement published by the Federal Open Market Committee on federalreserve.gov on 28 October 2026, normally at 2pm Washington time: YES if the statement names a target range higher than 3.75 to 4 per cent, NO if the range is unchanged or lower. If that page is not published by 23:59 New York time that day, reports of the decision by two of Reuters, BBC News and the Financial Times settle it.
Eight times in eleven, the Fed moved again at the next meeting. We looked at every time since 1994 that the Fed's rate committee changed direction, from cuts to rises or the other way. 1994 is when it started announcing decisions on the same day. When it moved the same new way again, it did so 41 to 55 days later. When it did not, it waited 166 days or more.