Hunch. Inflation has been above the 2% target for more than five years and the September rise was carried 12 to 0, so this committee goes into December more united than the record's average case.
This market resolves on the Federal Reserve's open market operations table for 2026 on federalreserve.gov, read after the December statement on 9 December 2026: YES if at least one increase in the target range is recorded with a date after 17 September 2026, NO if none is. If that page is not updated by 23:59 New York time on 10 December 2026, the October and December FOMC statements on the same site settle it, with Reuters and BBC News as fallbacks.
Eight times in eleven, the Fed moved again at the next meeting. We looked at every time since 1994 that the Fed's rate committee changed direction, from cuts to rises or the other way. 1994 is when it started announcing decisions on the same day. When it moved the same new way again, it did so 41 to 55 days later. When it did not, it waited 166 days or more.