Hunch. Two rises in a row need the October meeting to move first, and October is the leg investors are pricing against, so this sits well below its own record of 6 of 11.
This market resolves on the same 2026 open market operations table, read after the December statement: YES if two separate increases are recorded with dates after 17 September 2026, one from the October meeting and one from the December meeting, NO if fewer. Fallbacks are the two FOMC statements themselves, then Reuters and BBC News.
Eight times in eleven, the Fed moved again at the next meeting. We looked at every time since 1994 that the Fed's rate committee changed direction, from cuts to rises or the other way. 1994 is when it started announcing decisions on the same day. When it moved the same new way again, it did so 41 to 55 days later. When it did not, it waited 166 days or more.