Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market17 Jun 2026

What does the Fed do at its July meeting?

Multiple choiceResolves 29 Jul 2026
Hunch
Hold79%
Hike 25bp17%
Cut 25bp4%
Your forecast
  • Hold
  • Hike 25bp
  • Cut 25bp
Resolved
Resolved: Hold

The FOMC maintained the federal funds target range at 3.50-3.75 percent on 29 July 2026, the fifth consecutive hold, on a 9-3 vote.

Resolved 29 Jul 2026
How this resolves

Resolution follows the FOMC statement published at federalreserve.gov at 2pm ET on 29 July 2026; the target range for the federal funds rate is the source of truth. A hike dissent counts only if recorded in the official vote tally of the 29 July statement. "Hike 25bp" resolves on any upward move of at least 25 basis points to the target range.

The pattern behind it

4 of 5
Four of five new Fed chairs who inherited an inflation question tightened within their first two meetings; only Yellen waited. Warsh has already used his first meeting on a hold — July is the second.

Four of the five chairs before him raised rates within two meetings. We looked at every new Fed chair since 1979 who took over while prices were rising and the next step on rates was open. Kevin Warsh is the sixth. Of the five before him, only Janet Yellen waited.