Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market17 Jun 2026

Will the Fed hold rates at Warsh's first meeting in June?

BinaryResolves 17 Jun 2026
History4 of 5
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The FOMC voted unanimously to keep the target range at 3.50–3.75%, though the dot plot shifted sharply hawkish.

Resolved 17 Jun 2026
How this resolves

The first-meeting market resolved on the FOMC statement published at federalreserve.gov after Warsh's first meeting as chair; an unchanged target range resolves YES.

The pattern behind it

4 of 5
Four of five new Fed chairs who inherited an inflation question tightened within their first two meetings; only Yellen waited. Warsh has already used his first meeting on a hold — July is the second.

Four of the five chairs before him raised rates within two meetings. We looked at every new Fed chair since 1979 who took over while prices were rising and the next step on rates was open. Kevin Warsh is the sixth. Of the five before him, only Janet Yellen waited.