Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market18 Sep 2026

Do the Lords report on the draft tax bill by 17 December?

BinaryResolves 17 Dec 2026
History43%
Hunch32%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 17 Dec 2026
Why these numbers

Hunch. The three most recent completed cycles took 109, 141 and 133 days, so on the committee's current form this report does not exist before Christmas.

How this resolves

The Christmas market resolves on the sub-committee's own list of reports at committees.parliament.uk, which carries each report with its HL paper number on the day it appears. It resolves YES if the report on the draft Finance Bill 2026-27 is published on or before 17 December 2026, whatever it recommends. A letter to the Treasury, a further call for evidence or a government response to an older report does not count. If the parliamentary pages have not updated, reports of the publication in the Financial Times and on the BBC settle it.

The pattern behind it

3 of 7
Three of the seven autumn inquiries since 2018 produced a report within 90 days: 71, 83 and 90 days. The other four took 99, 109, 133 and 141. Ninety days from 18 September 2026 is 17 December, the day the Lords rise.

We found seven autumn reports from this committee since 2018. For each one we counted the days from the call for evidence to the report. We left out four rounds in January and February, which ran to a different timetable. Two of the seven reports came from one call for evidence in 2018. The committee also closed when Parliament was dissolved in May 2024 and was rebuilt in 2025, so the three latest reports came from a different group of members under a different chair.