Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market18 Sep 2026

Do the Lords report on the draft tax bill by 5 January?

BinaryResolves 5 Jan 2027
History71%
Hunch58%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolves 5 Jan 2027
Why these numbers

Hunch. Both of the last two reports landed at the end of January, well past this date, and the two slowest cycles in the whole record are the two most recent ones.

How this resolves

The January market resolves on the same list and by the same test, with the date moved to 5 January 2027, the day both Houses come back from the Christmas recess. A report published during the recess still counts, because the register is dated by publication and not by sitting day. If the parliamentary pages have not updated, the Financial Times and the BBC settle it.

The pattern behind it

3 of 7
Three of the seven autumn inquiries since 2018 produced a report within 90 days: 71, 83 and 90 days. The other four took 99, 109, 133 and 141. Ninety days from 18 September 2026 is 17 December, the day the Lords rise.

We found seven autumn reports from this committee since 2018. For each one we counted the days from the call for evidence to the report. We left out four rounds in January and February, which ran to a different timetable. Two of the seven reports came from one call for evidence in 2018. The committee also closed when Parliament was dissolved in May 2024 and was rebuilt in 2025, so the three latest reports came from a different group of members under a different chair.