History. 6 of 7: all but August 2018, when the rise was fully expected.
Hunch. October's average already carries September's repeated price rises by lenders, so December has to beat a high starting point.
Resolves on the Bank of England database, series IUMBV42 (average quoted rate on a five-year fixed mortgage at 75% loan to value), checked on 2 February 2027 after the release of 1 February: YES if the December 2026 value is at least 0.01 point above the October 2026 value, and NO if it is equal or lower. The values shown on 2 February count even if the Bank revises them later, and The Guardian and BBC News reports of the release are the backup.
We looked for cases where UK lenders were raising fixed mortgage rates while the Bank of England had kept its rate still for at least three months, and markets expected a rise at the next meeting. We found seven since 2003. For each, we compared the Bank's own average five-year rate in the month before the meeting with the first full month after.