History. 4 of 7: higher three months on in 2004, 2007, May 2018 and 2021; lower in 2003, 2017 and August 2018, each time after the Bank raised its rate.
Hunch. Investors expect at least three more Bank of England rises in 2027, which would keep lenders' own borrowing costs high into February.
The February market resolves on the same Bank of England series IUMBV42, checked the day after the Money and Credit release for February 2027, expected by 2 April 2027: YES if the February 2027 value is at least 0.01 point above the October 2026 value, and NO if it is equal or lower. The values shown that day count even if the Bank revises them later, and The Guardian and BBC News reports of the release are the backup.
We looked for cases where UK lenders were raising fixed mortgage rates while the Bank of England had kept its rate still for at least three months, and markets expected a rise at the next meeting. We found seven since 2003. For each, we compared the Bank's own average five-year rate in the month before the meeting with the first full month after.