Hunch. On 30 October The Observer called the Miami seat a toss-up, with María Elvira Salazar neck and neck with Democrat Eliott Rodríguez.
The Florida 27th district seat market resolves on the Florida Division of Elections results for the 3 November 2026 election in US House District 27: YES if the Republican candidate wins the seat, NO if a candidate of any other party wins. BBC News and The Guardian reports naming the winner confirm it, and settle it if the official page cannot be opened.
We looked for cases where a House member from the president's party ran again in a midterm after breaking in public with the president on an issue that hurt voters at home, in a district and state the president had won by 10 points or more. The newest group that fits all of this is ten races in 2014, and older years have more. Each was a Democrat who voted on 15 November 2013 for a bill to let people keep their health plans, against Barack Obama's veto threat. (US House Clerk; The American Presidency Project; The Guardian)