Hunch. Right-wing papers now urge conservatives to back Tarcísio de Freitas instead, the kind of pressure that brought Mozambique's exile home, though only on day 70.
The year-end return market resolves YES if between the market opening on 28 October 2026 and 23:59 US Eastern time on 31 December 2026 Flávio Bolsonaro is physically on Brazilian land, or if it is confirmed that he was already on Brazilian land when the market opened, as reported by the Guardian and confirmed by the BBC. Brazilian airspace or waters do not count, and the BBC and Al Jazeera settle it together if the Guardian does not open.
We looked for cases where a candidate for president lost a national election, left the country within a year and lived abroad for more than 30 days. We found eight such exiles since 2007, in Africa, Europe and Latin America. Four of them left before the winner took office, as Flávio Bolsonaro did.