Hunch. In his letter from Miami on 28 October, Flávio Bolsonaro said he would lead Brazil's opposition from abroad, like Charles de Gaulle from London.
The early return market resolves YES if by 23:59 Brasília time on 4 January 2027 Flávio Bolsonaro has physically entered Brazil, as reported by the Guardian and confirmed by the BBC; arriving on 5 January counts as NO. If the Guardian does not open, the BBC and Al Jazeera settle it together.
We looked for cases where a candidate for president lost a national election, left the country within a year and lived abroad for more than 30 days. We found eight such exiles since 2007, in Africa, Europe and Latin America. Four of them left before the winner took office, as Flávio Bolsonaro did.