Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market25 Oct 2026

Will Florida's Amendment 3 get more Yes than No votes on 3 Nov?

BinaryResolves 3 Nov 2026
History100%
Hunch87%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Florida's Amendment 3 got more Yes than No votes on 3 November 2026, 4,894,305 (62.01%) to 2,998,348 with 99% of the expected vote in, as NBC 6 South Florida shows, and WUSF citing the News Service of Florida and CBS12 report 62% support (all off-list); the state results site is behind a Cloudflare check and The Guardian and BBC News have not reported it.

Resolved 3 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. All nine property tax cuts that Florida lawmakers put to voters at general elections from 2016 to 2024 got more yes than no votes, including the three that missed 60% (57.3% to 58.7%).

Hunch. On 15 October the Florida League of Cities told voters that Amendment 3 'is not a tax cut, it's a tax shift'.

How this resolves

The Yes and No market resolves on the Florida Division of Elections results page for 3 November 2026: YES if Amendment 3 gets more votes for than against, NO if it gets more against, and a tie is void. The Guardian and BBC News reports settle it if the state page does not open.

The pattern behind it

6 of 9
Six of nine property tax cuts that Florida lawmakers put to voters at general elections from 2016 to 2024 reached 60%. Three got 57% to 59% and failed, all at midterm elections, which fall halfway through a president's term.

We looked for cases where Florida lawmakers asked voters to cut property tax at a November general election, after the 60% rule came in, while local property tax had grown by a fifth or more in three years. We found nine such votes from 2016 to 2024, on five election days. All nine got more yes votes than no votes, and six reached 60%.