Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market25 Oct 2026

Will Florida voters pass Amendment 3 on property tax on 3 Nov?

BinaryResolves 3 Nov 2026
History67%
Hunch49%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

Amendment 3 won about 62.01% Yes on 3 November 2026 with 99% of the expected vote in (NBC 6 South Florida), and WUSF citing the News Service of Florida and CBS12 report 62%, above the 60% needed and more than 0.5 points clear of it (all off-list); the state results site is behind a Cloudflare check.

Resolved 3 Nov 2026
Why these numbers

History. Six of nine property tax cuts that Florida lawmakers put to voters at general elections from 2016 to 2024 reached 60%. The three that failed were all at the midterms of 2018 and 2022.

Hunch. Amendment 3 goes to voters at the 3 November midterm election, and at the last two midterms three of four such cuts fell short of 60%.

How this resolves

The pass market resolves on the same state results page: YES if at least 60% of those who voted on Amendment 3 vote yes, as the Florida constitution requires, and NO if fewer do. If the result is within 0.5 points of 60%, it resolves on the day the state publishes its certified count, with The Guardian and BBC News as backups.

The pattern behind it

6 of 9
Six of nine property tax cuts that Florida lawmakers put to voters at general elections from 2016 to 2024 reached 60%. Three got 57% to 59% and failed, all at midterm elections, which fall halfway through a president's term.

We looked for cases where Florida lawmakers asked voters to cut property tax at a November general election, after the 60% rule came in, while local property tax had grown by a fifth or more in three years. We found nine such votes from 2016 to 2024, on five election days. All nine got more yes votes than no votes, and six reached 60%.