Does the FTSE 100 record its first close above 10,000 before 3 Feb 2026?
BinaryResolves 3 Feb 2026
Hunch72%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: YES
The index closed at 10,005 on 5 January, its first close in five figures, and did not close below 10,000 again in January (FTSE Russell closing values).
Resolved 5 Jan 2026
How this resolves
Resolves YES if the official FTSE 100 closing value published by FTSE Russell is above 10,000.00 on any trading day on or before 3 February 2026. Same fallbacks.
The pattern behind it
3 of 4
Three of the four thousand-point milestones since 1998 were followed by a retreat below the line within a year: 6,000 in 1998, 7,000 in 2015 and 8,000 in 2023. Four cases on the page, four in the record. The one that held is the most recent, 9,000 in July 2025, which is also the closest in character to this crossing, so the longer record and the latest case point opposite ways.
Three of four earlier milestones were lost within a year. We looked at each time since 1998 that the FTSE 100 first passed a new thousand-point level. We asked whether it closed back below that level within a year. Round numbers pull on markets. They bring selling to lock in gains, and they fill the headlines.
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