Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market03 Jan 2026

Does the FTSE 250 close above 23,000 on any day before 3 Feb 2026?

BinaryResolves 3 Feb 2026
Hunch45%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: YES

The mid-cap index closed at 23,037 on 9 January, its first close above 23,000, confirming that the domestic side of the market was moving with the blue chips (FTSE Russell closing values).

Resolved 9 Jan 2026
How this resolves

Resolves YES if the official FTSE 250 closing value published by FTSE Russell is above 23,000.00 on any trading day on or before 3 February 2026. Same fallbacks.

The pattern behind it

3 of 4
Three of the four thousand-point milestones since 1998 were followed by a retreat below the line within a year: 6,000 in 1998, 7,000 in 2015 and 8,000 in 2023. Four cases on the page, four in the record. The one that held is the most recent, 9,000 in July 2025, which is also the closest in character to this crossing, so the longer record and the latest case point opposite ways.

Three of four earlier milestones were lost within a year. We looked at each time since 1998 that the FTSE 100 first passed a new thousand-point level. We asked whether it closed back below that level within a year. Round numbers pull on markets. They bring selling to lock in gains, and they fill the headlines.