The government's weekly road fuel prices, published on GOV.UK on 20 October 2026, put the average UK diesel price on Monday 19 October at 199.33p a litre, above the 197.58p of 28 September, so diesel was not cheaper; BBC News and The Independent report diesel passing 200p a litre in early October.
History. 2 of 4 cases. The biggest fall was 1.65p a litre.
Hunch. UK diesel passed £2 a litre on 2 October, already above the 197.58p starting point, and in both past cases where the price was still rising at the time of the release it kept rising.
The pump price market resolves on the government's weekly road fuel prices, published on GOV.UK on Tuesday 20 October 2026: YES if the average UK diesel price for Monday 19 October is below 197.58p a litre, the figure for 28 September. An exactly equal price makes the market void, and if the page is not updated that day the next publication settles it.
We looked for cases where the main oil-importing countries released emergency stocks together through the IEA, while the supply problem behind the price rise was still going on and UK diesel was at a record or close to one. We found four since 2003. In two, UK diesel was cheaper three weeks later. All four were decisions of the same agency, and two came in the same crisis in 2022.