The US Energy Information Administration's daily Europe Brent spot price (release of 28 October 2026) was $125.39 a barrel on 22 October against $114.82 on 1 October, so Brent was dearer, which The Guardian's 23 October report of oil at its highest since April confirms.
History. 2 of 4 cases: Brent was lower 20 days after the release in 2005 and in April 2022, the second time by only 9 cents.
Hunch. Brent was back above $102 on the evening of the release after new fighting between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, and the release does nothing about the blocked supply from the Middle East.
The oil price market resolves on the US Energy Information Administration's daily Brent spot price series: YES if the price for 22 October 2026 is lower than the price for 1 October, and equal prices make it void. The EIA publishes these figures weekly with a delay of about a week, so the result is checked after the 22 October price appears, and Reuters and The Guardian are the backup.
We looked for cases where the main oil-importing countries released emergency stocks together through the IEA, while the supply problem behind the price rise was still going on and UK diesel was at a record or close to one. We found four since 2003. In two, UK diesel was cheaper three weeks later. All four were decisions of the same agency, and two came in the same crisis in 2022.