Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market17 Jun 2026

Will the Critical Minerals Alliance name members and a work plan by 10 Aug?

BinaryResolves 10 Aug 2026
History2 of 4
Hunch27%
Your forecast
  • Yes
  • No
Resolved
Resolved: NO

No official G7 channel published founding membership or a work programme for the alliance by 10 August; the G7 Information Centre archive records no such document after the Evian summit.

Resolved 10 Aug 2026
How this resolves

The alliance market resolves YES only if an official G7 channel (the French presidency site, the Élysée, or a member government acting as chair) publishes a document naming the alliance's participating states and a work programme, secretariat or first-meeting date on or before 10 August 2026. Commentary, think-tank summaries or unattributed briefings do not count; the source of truth is official G7 presidency and member-government publications.

The pattern behind it

2 of 4
Two of the last four headline G7 economic pledges delivered on schedule. The split is genuine and it tracks design: the ERA loans and the minerals action plan had mechanisms and owners; B3W and PGII had press releases and aggregates. The Évian alliance has a number but is explicitly non-binding, which puts it between the two camps.

We looked at the last four big G7 economic pledges. Two delivered on time and two faded away. The two that worked had a named way to move money and a clear number. The two that failed were broad plans with little behind them.