The Budget of 28 October 2026 raises Machine Games Duty from 20% to 25% for machines with stakes over £1 or prizes over £100 from 1 April 2027, the Budget 2026 document on GOV.UK shows, and BBC News and The Guardian report the same.
History. 0 of 4 cases.
Hunch. Unlike any past case, the Chancellor is reported to be weighing this exact tax and the Prime Minister acted against slot machine venues on 11 August, which pulls well above a record with no rise.
Resolves on the Budget documents and the HMRC note on gambling duty changes on gov.uk, checked at 10:00 on 29 October 2026: YES if they set machine games duty above 20% from any date, and a consultation, review or promise to look again resolves NO. BBC News and The Guardian are the backup, and the market is void if the Budget moves from 28 October.
We looked for cases where the Treasury had to decide in a planned Budget whether to raise a tax on one industry. In each, the government had already acted against that industry, money was tight, and the industry had warned in public, with a number, of closures or lost jobs. We found four UK cases since 2013, two about beer and two about gambling.