The Budget 2026 document of 28 October 2026 raises no gambling tax rate other than Machine Games Duty; it only freezes the gaming duty bands for 2027-28, which is not a higher rate.
History. 4 of 4 cases. In 2014 the rise was wine duty in line with inflation.
Hunch. The usual nearby source is used up, since the online casino tax rose to 40% in April 2026 and a 25% online betting rate is already set for April 2027.
Resolves on the HMRC note on gambling duty changes on gov.uk, checked at 10:00 on 29 October 2026: YES if the Budget sets a higher rate for any gambling tax other than machine games duty, from any date, and the 25% online betting rate already set for April 2027 counts only if raised further. BBC News and The Guardian are the backup, and the market is void if the Budget moves from 28 October.
We looked for cases where the Treasury had to decide in a planned Budget whether to raise a tax on one industry. In each, the government had already acted against that industry, money was tight, and the industry had warned in public, with a number, of closures or lost jobs. We found four UK cases since 2013, two about beer and two about gambling.