Mediators and Hamas agreed terms in Cairo on 30 July to implement phase two, and Trump announced the Board of Peace had reached a deal for Hamas's complete disarmament (BBC News, 30 Jul 2026).
The phase-two market resolves YES only on a publicly announced agreement covering disarmament and/or Israeli withdrawal terms, confirmed by the Board of Peace and at least one of the two parties, by 23:59 GMT on 7 August 2026. Source of truth for casualty and control figures: Gaza health ministry via NPR/AP, and UK Home Office country bulletins.
We found four Israel-Hamas deals since 2012 that were built in stages. In each one the first phase partly worked, and the second phase was never reached.