The phase-two implementation agreement was announced in Cairo on 30 July 2026, the day before resolution (Egyptian Gazette; BBC News).
Resolved 31 Jul 2026
How this resolves
The Cairo-track market resolves on the most recent official characterisation from the Egyptian or Qatari mediators as of 31 July; 'collapsed or suspended' requires an explicit statement that talks have ended or been suspended, reported by Reuters, AP or Al Jazeera.
The pattern behind it
0 of 4
No multi-stage Israel-Hamas agreement since 2012 has advanced past its first phase — 0 of 4. That unbroken record is exactly why mediators built the Board of Peace structure this time, and exactly why the market prices agreement low.
We found four Israel-Hamas deals since 2012 that were built in stages. In each one the first phase partly worked, and the second phase was never reached.
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