Does Gemini 3.5 Pro reach general availability by 30 September 2026?
BinaryResolves 30 Sep 2026
Hunch45%
Your forecast
Yes
No
Resolved
Resolved: NO
The Gemini API changelog has no entry for Gemini 3.5 Pro, either preview or general release, up to 30 September 2026 (the latest entries cover the 3.6 to 3.8 Flash models), and the Gemini models page does not list it.
Resolved 30 Sep 2026
How this resolves
Same test and same source of truth, on or before 30 September 2026. If the release notes are ambiguous about tier, the model card on ai.google.dev governs.
The pattern behind it
3 of 4
In three of the four episodes on this page Google shipped or restored the product within roughly a quarter of its original target: Bard six weeks after the demo error in 2023, Gemini 1.0 Ultra inside a quarter later that year, and image generation within weeks in 2024. Four cases on the page, four in the record. The fourth case is the 2021 departure of a lead researcher, kept because it is the only precedent for the talent variable, and scored not-held because no shipping followed from it.
Google's past AI delays rarely lasted more than three months. We looked at times when Google delayed, paused or mishandled a major AI release, and checked whether the product came out or came back within about three months of its original target. The delays were real and sometimes embarrassing. The loss of top researchers is newer and less tested.
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