Die Linke took 25.7 per cent in Berlin against 18.8 for the CDU, first place in the city for the first time; the AfD was third on 16.3 and the SPD fifth on 12.1, its worst Berlin result (Berlin election authority, early on 21 September 2026).
Hunch. Die Linke gained two points in the final poll while the CDU slipped, but in both past misses the sitting head of government's party came from behind, and the CDU holds that office in Berlin.
The Berlin first-place market resolves on the provisional result that the Berlin state returning officer (Landeswahlleiter) publishes on wahlen-berlin.de on the night of 20 September 2026: YES if Die Linke has the highest share of second votes (Zweitstimmen) for the Abgeordnetenhaus, NO otherwise, and a tie resolves NO. If the site cannot be reached, the result as reported by two of Reuters, the Guardian and BBC News settles it.
We found seven state votes since 2023 with a clear poll lead. In each one a party went into the vote 3 points or more ahead in the last Infratest dimap poll, and we checked whether it won the most second votes, the party-list votes. Each case is a different state. The closest leads were Bremen in 2023, at 3 points, and Berlin in 2023, at 6. Berlin's own question sits on the other side of that line. In the four state votes since 2023 where the final lead was under 3 points, the poll leader came first twice.