The Bank of England series IUMAMNZC puts the October 2026 monthly average ten-year gilt yield at 5.37 per cent (5.3745), above August's 5.07, in the figure published after 2 November.
The market resolves on the Bank of England Statistical Interactive Database, series IUMAMNZC, monthly average yield from British Government Securities, ten-year nominal par yield, for October 2026 as it stands on 2 November 2026, to two decimal places; YES if above 5.07. The August 2026 figure is the first published value, 5.07. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and the Financial Times reports of month-end gilt yields settle it.
Two of the last eight highs rose further two months later. We used the Bank of England's monthly average for ten-year gilts since 1990. We took every month when the average was the highest for ten years, as in August 2026, and asked whether it was higher still two months later. All twelve such months came after September 2022, because rates fell for most of the three decades before. We show the last eight and count all twelve.