Where will the October 2026 monthly average ten-year gilt yield sit?
Multiple choiceResolves 2 Nov 2026
Hunch
5.00% to 5.24%42%
5.25% or above25%
Below 5.00%33%
Your forecast
5.00% to 5.24%
5.25% or above
Below 5.00%
Resolved
Resolved: 5.25% or above
The Bank of England series IUMAMNZC puts the October 2026 monthly average ten-year gilt yield at 5.37 per cent (5.3745), in the 5.25% or above band.
Resolved 2 Nov 2026
How this resolves
The market resolves on the same October 2026 monthly average placed in one of the three bands. If that source has not published in time, Reuters and the Financial Times settle it.
The pattern behind it
2 of 8
Two of the last eight ten-year highs carried into a higher average two months later: August 2023 (4.42 to 4.53) and March 2026 (4.78 to 5.03). The other six, October 2023, January, August and September 2025, and April and May 2026, were followed by a lower average. Across all twelve highs since September 2022 the later month was higher in 4. Highs have clustered, four in 2023 and three in the spring of 2026, and the month two on from a cluster has more often eased than pushed on.
Two of the last eight highs rose further two months later. We used the Bank of England's monthly average for ten-year gilts since 1990. We took every month when the average was the highest for ten years, as in August 2026, and asked whether it was higher still two months later. All twelve such months came after September 2022, because rates fell for most of the three decades before. We show the last eight and count all twelve.
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