At the Budget on 28 October 2026 planned gilt sales for 2026-27 rose by £4.4bn to £250.6bn, above £246.2bn, per the HM Treasury Budget 2026 document and a Reuters report of the DMO's revised remit; the DMO's own site shows a captcha even in the browser, so its notice was not read directly.
The market resolves on the DMO press notice revising the 2026-27 financing remit, published on dmo.gov.uk on 28 October 2026 alongside the Budget; YES if total planned gilt sales exceed £246.2 billion. If no revision is published on Budget day, the market resolves on the first DMO revision within seven days, otherwise NO. If that source has not published in time, HM Treasury Budget documents on gov.uk and Reuters settle it.
Two of the last eight highs rose further two months later. We used the Bank of England's monthly average for ten-year gilts since 1990. We took every month when the average was the highest for ten years, as in August 2026, and asked whether it was higher still two months later. All twelve such months came after September 2022, because rates fell for most of the three decades before. We show the last eight and count all twelve.