Tue, 19 May 2026
Hunch
Market05 May 2026

Where does the 30-year gilt yield close on 31 July 2026?

Multiple choiceResolves 31 Jul 2026
Hunch
Below 5.25%12%
5.25% to 5.49%44%
5.50% to 5.74%33%
5.75% or above11%
Your forecast
  • Below 5.25%
  • 5.25% to 5.49%
  • 5.50% to 5.74%
  • 5.75% or above
Resolved
Resolved: 5.75% or above

The Bank of England's daily nominal spot curve put the 30-year at 5.89 per cent on 31 July 2026, the top of that week after 5.80 on 27 July and 5.79 on 28 July. The DMO's own daily export is no longer reachable without a browser, so the Bank's published curve settles it.

Resolved 31 Jul 2026
How this resolves

The 31 July market resolves on the band containing the 30-year yield on 31 July 2026, read from the Bank of England's published daily nominal spot curve. It was written against the DMO's daily close; the DMO export is no longer reachable without a browser, so the Bank's curve settles it and the reading is quoted in full.

The pattern behind it

3 of 3
In all 3 long-gilt yield spikes from 2022 to 2025, yields retreated within roughly two months of the peak. The May 2026 spike is the case under test and is not counted. The uncomfortable part: each successive peak (5.1%, 5.47%, 5.75%, then 5.78% in May) has been higher, so 'retreat' keeps meaning a higher resting level.

This is the fourth spike in four years. Each time, UK long-term borrowing costs jumped to their highest in decades after a scare about government finances or inflation. The three spikes before this one all eased within about two months. But each peak was higher than the one before, and the level they eased back to keeps rising.