No LBMA PM price exceeded $4,200 in the market window; the highest was $4,164.15 on 3 July (lbma.org.uk).
The binary resolves YES if any LBMA afternoon (PM) gold auction price in US dollars, published at lbma.org.uk, exceeds $4,200.00 before 31 July 2026; if the auction is not published on a given date, the previous business day's PM price applies.
Gold has fallen 20% or more from a record four times in modern history. The results split evenly. Twice gold set a new record within about two years. Twice the peak was followed by a long slump that lasted most of a decade or more.